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One very big sense, the Oscars generally do matter: they greatly influence the movies that get financed and the pay scale that artists attain. This year happens to be one in which some unusually excellent films and artists have gotten nominations—and in which, for a welcome and long-overdue change, some of those films are centered on the lives of black people and some of those major artists are black. So, in one sense, this years Oscars matter exceptionally much. But, in another sense, win or lose, the results are already in.

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Moonlight has been nominated for eight Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Thats pretty amazing for a movie that cost a mere five million dollars to make. Its writer and director, Barry Jenkins, a total outsider who made his first feature, Medicine for Melancholy, for fifteen thousand dollars, is now a pillar of the industry—already. The world has outrun the Academy in acknowledging Jenkinss centrality; whether the Academy catches up with the world is hardly relevant.

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This isnt the only recent year in which the years best Hollywood or off-Hollywood film Moonlight received Oscar nominations; Wes Andersons The Grand Budapest Hotel got nine and won only in four minor categories, in 2015, and Martin Scorseses The Wolf of Wall Street got five and won none, in 2014. When Scorsese finally won his belated Oscar for Best Director, for The Departed, from 2006, he needed it: en route from his past heroism to his latter-day renaissance, Scorsese, who works on a colossal scale with colossal budgets, needed to pass from the age of the studios to the age of the Medici, and that Oscar did the trick. Jenkins, by contrast, is where Scorsese was with Taxi Driver, which got four nominations and no wins—he has marked history and doesnt need the Oscar to prove it.

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In my predictions, Ill balance punditry with pessimism Ive learned to assume that my favorite films wont win. All along, Ive been pretty sure that La La Land would be a lock for Best Picture; Hollywood loves nothing more than to see itself as a place where young people can fulfill their wildest dreams of stardom, and do so without any artistic compromise. But I think that Moonlight will win big, if not for the right reason. The Oscars 2017 right reason is simple: its by far the best picture on the list and the best movie that the industry produced all year. The reason it will win, though, is that the new American political regime is overtly racist, homophobic, and plutocratic, and many Hollywood people, like many people everywhere, are justly disgusted and angry. Moonlight is a fine and fierce work of art, but its very subject, a poor, black, gay young man, is, in its every detail, an affront to the Administrations benighted sensibilities. If the voting had happened before the shock of the new post-Inauguration reality, La La Land would win, but the voting period runs from February 13th through today, while the outrages, in word and deed, spew daily from Washington throughout the nation and the world. Moonlight is a great movie, not a political screed, but current events transform its symbolic significance.

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In 2006, Crash won for Best Picture and Ang Lee for Best Director, for Brokeback Mountain. For the next six years, the two awards 2017 overlapped, as they so often have throughout the history of the Oscars. The Academy has been implicitly auteurist since before the word was coined. But, in three of the past four years, the Best Picture and Best Director awards have been split, and I dont think this is a coincidence. Spotlight, the last Best Picture winner, is a political film; The Revenant, for which Alejandro G. Iñárritu won Best Director, isnt. https://www.oscar--2017.us/

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The same was true, two years earlier, of 12 Years a Slave and Alfonso Cuaróns Gravity, respectively, and, the year before that, for Argo and Lees Life of Pi. In 2015, there was Iñárritus Birdman, which won both Best Picture and Best Director; it wasnt a political film but, rather, a Hollywood actors self-regarding lament and fantasy—akin to La La Land. This year, I think were likely to see a similar split again, with Damien Chazelle, the director of La La Land, winning Best Director.

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Best Actor is a tough call. Casey Affleck gave the best performance, in Manchester by the Sea, but Denzel Washington is the best actor, even if in Fences, which he directed and starred in, he lets the technique show much too much. As my colleague Michael Schulman has written, the allegations of sexual harassment and related lawsuits that Affleck has faced may stay the hand of some voters; if thats so, the question is whether Washington will be the beneficiary or whether, in an altogether frothier register, Ryan Gosling, in La La Land, will squeeze through. I think its the year of substance over style though, of course, Moonlight has both; Washington will win.

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For Best Actress, nothing impresses like a tour de force, and the physical exertions that Isabelle Huppert invests in and endures in Elle are far showier than Emma Stones singing and dancing in La La Land. Im surprised that Taraji P. Henson didnt get a Best Actress nomination for her strong, thoughtful performance in Hidden Figures; its rare for movies about intellectuals to show the synapses firing, and Henson evokes mighty mental energy with mere glances. Hupperts Oscar would, moreover, serve as a lifetime-achievement award, and a well-deserved one. In Hollywood, youth will be served, and nothing delights the industry more than anointing its new royals. But sex sells—Elle and Huppert will win.

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Mahershala Ali is a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actor, and thats as it should be though Lucas Hedgess work in Manchester by the Sea is impressive, both verbally and physically, for an actor whos barely twenty. Alongside Jenkins, Ali is the cinematic man of the year, and his Best Supporting Actor nomination for Moonlight hardly scratches the surface of his vital presence. He could have been nominated for any or all of the films in which he appeared this year—whether for his role as a life-hardened gangster in Kicks, as a runaway slave in Free State of Jones, or, for that matter, as a male-chauvinist colonel in Hidden Figures. Hes the most old-school actor in the mix: for all his accomplished artistry, he doesnt need to show off his exertions onscreen, because his mere presence brings a world of experience to life. I impatiently await his leading roles.

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Best Supporting Actress is a weird category this year, not least because one of the nominees, Viola Davis, in Fences, ought to have been considered a lead actress. By contrast, Michelle Williams is on screen for only a few minutes in Manchester by the Sea, but theyre among the films most memorable moments and, for some viewers, its very summit. Meanwhile, Naomie Harriss performance in Moonlight opens wide emotional 2017 Oscars expanses in precise touches, and Octavia Spencer, in Hidden Figures, delivers the films emotional payoff no less than Williams does in Manchester. Spencer has won an Oscar, but Davis hasnt, and I think that this will be her year.

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Best Documentary is a tough category this year, too. I think that, for the boldness of the director Ezra Edelmans ambition, the depth of his research, the intricacy of his montage, and the prominence of his films subject, O. J.: Made in America will win, though Ava DuVernays 13th is the more insightful film with the larger historical scope and the more vital political insight, and Raoul Pecks I Am Not Your Negro has greater artistic resonance. Fire at Sea looks rigorous in its distanced, aestheticized view of the arrival of refugees on the island of Lampedusa and the lives of the islands residents, but its actually a coy and intellectually lazy shrug. Life, Animated is a moving and noteworthy story about an autistic boy who manages to make contact with the world and develop his own faculties by watching Disney movies; the filmmaking, however, with its many added animations and its snippety storytelling, reduces its remarkable subject to an all too familiar tone.